Sunday, January 15, 2017

2017 OSHG: Demand and the forking of virtual world uses. Ann Tree Prenyour comments

Demand and the forking of virtual world uses.  
Ann Tree Prenyour comments
The forking of virtual world uses opens up a great vista of opportunities for entrepreneurs.  Ann and Selby discuss some upcoming forks and a few possibilities they offer.  

Ann Tree Prenyour*:  Software developers pay attention to forking software.  My people pay attention to forking demand.  Sometimes forking demand stimulates forking software.
*Ann Tree Prenyour is one of the people in my head--Selby..  

Selby:  What is interesting about forking demand?

Ann:  It creates opportunities for new businesses.  We are always interested in the road less travelled.  And a demand fork is bound to lead to at least one of those.  In this case, virtual worlds are splitting into at least a three-pronged fork.  That's high tech, middle tech, and browser tech.  And that matches a pyramid of demand.

Selby:  After the break, Ann will explain the point of the pyramid of demand.  
  • (More after the break, scroll down!)

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Ann: The point of the pyramid of demand is not what my people would be interested in.  The pyramid keeps going higher and higher.  And getting smaller and smaller.   It winds up in the highest point, really high, but nothing there.  Not much demand at the top, so there is not much room at the top.

Selby:  Don't we always want better tech?

Ann:  Demand is not just about wanting.  Not even economists would need a fancy word just to talk about what people want.  Demand is also about what people will pay for it.

Demand, Wikipedia.   Demand is a buyer's willingness and ability to pay a price for a specific quantity of a good or service. Demand refers to how much (quantity) of a product or service is desired by buyers at various prices.[1] The quantity demanded is the amount of a product people are willing or able to buy at a certain price; the relationship between price and quantity demanded is known as the demand.[2] (see also supply and demand). 

Demand Investopedia.  Demand is an economic principle that describes a consumer's desire and willingness to pay a price for a specific good or service. Holding all other factors constant, an increase in the price of a good or service will decrease demand, and vice versa.

Selby: Okay, the top of the pyramid is what a lot of people want but few can afford.  So your people are interested in the big bottoms.

Ann:  Not the bottomest bottoms.  There the product is usually just a commodity.   Competition is based only on price.   The winner is the lowest cost producer, but there may be enough demand to support lots of producers.  Like with farm products.

Selby:  So you go down on the pyramid, but you don't go all the way.  What do you look for?

Ann: You look for the cracks, where the pyramid may be coming apart.  In the market for opensource virtual worlds , High Fidelity may mark a crack  It is supposed to offer a big improvement in tech quality.  

Selby:  But in open-source, the software is free.  No price to deal with.

Ann:  The software is free, but using it has costs.  People will need a more expensive machine to benefit from improved graphics.  And maybe more skill to build in higher tech.  

Selby:  And if the only reason I need the expensive machine is for better virtual worlds graphics, I may not be willing to put out the money.

Ann:  So the want may be there, but not so much demand.   When price goes up, demand goes down.   But you always want to consider the upscale.  Those people have money to spend.  And you already have an eager market in SL  and OpenSim.  

Selby:  They want the best and they want it now.  

Ann: They'll pay a lot of the costs of development.  But the mass market is down near the bottom of the pyramid. At the other end, when price goes down, demand usually goes up.

Selby:  But if you draw customers from SL and OpenSim, do you close them out?

Ann: That is Oldthink.  Newthink says you look for ways to draw new customers.  You usually start downscale.  The mass market.  

Selby: There is a crack developing in that direction, too.  The browser-viewer.  Download and install a viewer is a big barrier, even though the viewer is free.  And I just verified that I could get into Cybalounge on a laptop I bought for $260.  Very slow, but enough for a conversation if it had voice.  Maybe a software fork here.  Virtual worlds lite.

Ann:  A sailing community in the virtual worlds could have a world on a web page.  With a minimal sailing scene--docks, a working sailboat, a wide expanse of water on a backdrop.  "Come in and sail the virtual seas with us."   Throw in all those sailing terms that Kayker Magic has in his scripts.   Give times when the sailing people will be there.  Now you have a good fremium offer.  
Selby:  So entry level software would be a fork for beginners.
Ann: Well, maybe more like a spork--combination spoon and fork. Powerful software, steep learning curve and expensive machines for the top of the line.  Everyday software, easy-to-use, cheap hardware for entry level people.  Maybe a layer in between.

Selby: My cheap laptop would probably not give a good experience.  

Ann:  But next year's cheap laptop will be better.  And freemium is about selling upgrades.  Some newcomers will see why the virtual natives like it.  They will see why they need a better machine and better graphics.  That's is what happened to the virtual natives.

Selby: And why we natives go to the trouble of downloading and installing a viewer.  Of course  when they are interested in our community we will be glad to talk them through that process.  

Ann:  So a low price does not just increase demand, it brings in people who may go for upscaling.  If you handle it right, it is not just selling products at a low price.  It is building a new target market for your better--and higher priced--products.  

Selby:  Like GM used to do with its Chevies to Caddies lineup.

Ann:  Right.  Not a new idea, but a new application of an old idea.  That's another way to get new ideas---check the old ones for ideas you can refurbish.  

The incomplete works of Ann Tree Prenyour


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            Previous Articles from the WIP show 

            HG links-- depending on your interests 

            Communities in the virtual worlds

            Radio in the virtual worlds

            Metaverse beginner help

                        Schools in virtual worlds

                        1 comment:

                        1. Haaa I called mine Auntie Prennure, accent plummily on the last syllable, thank you. Who can be a bit snotty with me about my actual liking for arts most people wished they like but actually don't.